Certainly, it's going to take time, but peak global combustion vehicle sales are long behind us (2017). Global fleet will turn over to EVs eventually, we're just arguing time horizon based on how quickly EV deployment ramps and combustion sales are destroyed. Combustion vehicle sales will only keep declining. Developing countries will soak up cheap EVs made by China, they will skip over combustion vehicles with higher total cost of ownership. Combustion vehicles will age out eventually as EV sales continue to increase.

> Globally, over 1-in-5 (22%) of new cars sold were electric in 2024. This share was 92% in Norway, and in China, it was almost 50%.

In 2025, it was 1-in-4 (25%). What will expensive oil do? It will pull these trajectories more vertical.

Global oil price stuck in triple digits. Goldman Sachs says it may stay there for years - https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/20/energy/oil-gas-prices-intl-hn... - March 20th, 2026

Our World In Data: Tracking global data on electric vehicles - https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales

Ember Energy: China Cleantech Exports Data Explorer - https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-exports-data-e...

The World Hit ‘Peak’ Gas-Powered Vehicle Sales — in 2017 - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/world-hit... | https://archive.today/p2hl1 - January 30th, 2024

Electric Cars Pass a Crucial Tipping Point in 23 Countries - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-28/electric-... | https://archive.today/e8XSt - August 27th, 2023

BYD's bet on EVs is paying off as drivers ditch gas amid rising oil prices