> Implication 1: Lower entry barrier makes software lower-respect field

Maybe? This one's kind of subjective. I'm sure there are some people who will feel this way, and many who won't.

Do you respect artists less, now that you can make AI images?

As for pay, it seems unlikely to me that the job title of "software engineer" is going to see a significant decrease in median wage as a result of AI. Though there may simply be fewer "software engineer" jobs and more "prompt engineer" jobs.

> Implication 2: Optionality changes the commitment to software products

It's not clear to me that the typical decision-making process the average company was using to choose (for example) project management software, is going to be significantly different in the AI era than before. "Let's use JIRA, since that's what everyone else uses."

Making decisions this way is low-risk, and lower-cost than the token cost of vibe-coding something custom. The analogy to dating apps doesn't work - dating apps reward searching far and wide for something perfect, whereas the business world rewards going with what you know and making decisions quickly.

> Implication 3: The middle class of software products will disappear

I don't believe the cost of software creation is approaching zero. People are taking this concept too far and too literally. First of all, obviously there are token costs. And secondly, obviously there is still a time and effort requirement involved in maintaining anything, even via vibe-coding. Most companies have absolutely no reason to prefer to incur these costs rather than simply paying the man his $50/month.

But thirdly, and probably most importantly, there's the inherent cost of merely being responsible for something. Like I wrote earlier, decisionmakers want to minimize risk. The mere fact of being responsible for something - of it being someone's fault if something goes wrong - is a dire political cost, which most business leaders try to avoid by buying external rather than creating in-house. The SaaS market isn't going anywhere.

> Implication 4: If you want to win, sell services, not products

Service automation is a fruit that has already been mostly squeezed by conventional software.

That is to say - the space of things that traditional software can't already automate, that LLMs would be capable of automating, and that LLMs would be reliable and efficient enough at to significantly move the needle on real productivity - is small.

(Ironically, software development is one of the few things in that space. Since when you automate software development you can also automate the creation of tests that (at least attempt to) validate the correctness of the software itself. Not so much for legal documents.)

Software Is Becoming Marketing